New Albany, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

922
FXUS63 KLMK 141124
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
624 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast US
  this weekend, with rainfall amounts on the order of 0.75-1.5"
  expected for most areas.

* Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures are expected early
  next week, with increasing chances for rain late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Things are quiet across the region at this hour, and seeing a good
mix of temperatures as some of the sheltered valleys have decoupled
(20s) , and other areas have stayed a bit more mixed (30s). In
addition, satellite imagery is also showing an increase in upper sky
cover starting to overspread the area. So, temps may actually trend
upward a bit toward sunrise.

As we move past sunrise, a light S wind takes hold of the area with
mid and upper sky cover continue to increase ahead of the
approaching system. Despite the increased sky cover, do expect temps
to warm into the mid 50s to low 60s across the area. We`ll stay dry
through much of the day, before the column begins to saturate later
in the afternoon, and especially after sunset. This will occur as
shortwave energy moves out of the Red River Valley and into the
lower Mississippi River Valley, drawing on plenty of deep moisture
as it does so. We look to sit firmly in the right entrance region of
a 120 knot upper level jet from this evening through tomorrow, with
low level jetting responding beneath this feature, and steadily
strengthening over our area, especially after Midnight tonight. The
combination of deep forcing/lift through the column in addition to a
high PWAT airmass (1" to 1.25") will result in widespread rainfall
across the entire CWA. Overall, rainfall amounts have stayed pretty
consistent with the previous shift, ranging between .75" to 1.5".
Areas along and north of I-64 should expect more in the .5" to .75"
range. There does appear to be some disconnect between the best low
level jetting across southern KY, and the mid level deformation band
more across the northern third of the CWA. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, this could create a two areas of enhanced
precip amounts. One across southern KY, and the other up near the
Ohio River where the def band will create a bit more residence time
and pool a bit more moisture.

Still appears we should largely be able to handle this rainfall, as
we don`t really get close to FFG values, and PMMs on the HREF are
pretty similar to the 48 QPF means. Overall, the best rates are
expected across southern KY where the LLJ core maximizes, but still
these rates look to peak up around .25" per hour. Will make note the
14/00z run of the NAM is more aggressive and suggests a swath of 2+"
across southern KY, which would lead to more concern for some minor
flooding issues, and some river flooding issues on the Green or
Cumberland basins. However, NBM and LREF probs of rainfall over 2"
don`t exceed 25-30% so leaning against solutions that aggressive at
the moment.

Rainfall begins to diminish from NW to SE on Sunday afternoon and
evening as the system passes to our south and east and takes the
deeper moisture with it. Temperatures will be notably cooler for
Sunday, but are still expected in the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

=== Sunday Night - Tuesday ===

The low pressure system will continue to move its way out of the
region to the east coast Sunday night. This will move any remaining
rain showers out of the SE counties by Sunday evening. Winds will
become light and shift easterly. Minimum temperatures are expected
to be in the mid to high 30s across the area. Cloud cover will
remain east of I-65 through the night into Monday morning. Upper
level ridging will move into the area behind the low pressure
system, which will lead to mild and dry conditions Monday and
Tuesday. WAA will push into the Ohio Valley Monday resulting in
maximum temperatures nearing 60 degrees both days; even a chance for
mid 60s on Tuesday. Mostly cloudy skies are expected and will also
help keep our nighttime temperatures above freezing.

=== Wednesday - Saturday ===

A jet streak will be stretching from Arizona to the Ohio Valley, and
will remain over the area for majority of the week into the weekend.
A band of moisture advection from the Pacific will accompany this SW
flow aloft. This is also associated with a strong pressure gradient
from a deep low moving NE over Minnesota. This will lead to a gusty
Wednesday with speeds around 15kts and gusts around 20kts. The rain
on the south side of the low looks to remain north of the area, but
light rain showers could still be possible in the northern most
counties.

Another low pressure system will be moving eastward from the plains
into the area on Thursday. Guidance is tracking this low through
central IN leaving the Ohio Valley with widespread chances of rain
for Thursday into Friday. A brief break in rain Friday night before
another chance of rain for Saturday moves in from the south
associated with a frontal boundary. Currently, these systems are not
looking to bring large amounts of rain, but will be something to
watch as we get closer. The polar jet stream will take another dip
into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, so temperatures will drop slightly
starting Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

We start out dry and VFR with calm to light SE winds, and increasing
upper sky cover. As we move into late morning, S to SSW winds
increase between 5 and 10 mph, and mid to upper ceilings steadily
lower. Chances for light rain will increase after sunset, and
especially after Midnight as the storm system passes to our south.
Ceilings will continue lowering through the overnight, with an
eventual trend into MVFR going into Sunday. IFR conditions will also
be possible the deeper into Sunday we get both with ceilings and
reduced vis in light to moderate rain. Did also put a brief period
of LLWS in at BWG where low level jetting will be the strongest in
conjunction with a stable layer and light surface winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...BJS